China is likely experiencing 1 million Covid infections and 5,000 virus deaths every day as it grapples with what is expected to be the biggest outbreak the world has ever seen, according to a new analysis.

The situation could get even worse for the country of 1.4 billion people. This current wave may see the daily case rate rise to 3.7 million in January, according to Airfinity Ltd., a London-based research firm that focuses on predictive health analytics and has been tracking the pandemic since it first emerged. There’ll likely then be another surge of infections that will push the daily peak to 4.2 million in March, the group estimated.

Eoin Treacy's view

Another story this morning quoted a Chinese health official as saying 37 million people are being infected every day. That’s a variation of exactly 10X in the above estimates. 

Now that the COVID-zero suite of policies has been abandoned, the Chinese government has a clear incentive to shape public opinion by creating the impression the worst is already almost over.

With a population of around 1.3 billion, 37 million infections a day would mean everyone would be over the virus in little more than a month. At 3.7 million, we are looking at almost a year.

China is not on another planet. The virus is a global phenomenon and will be endemic globally before long. 10 weeks is about the best estimate for how long it takes the infection rate to peak. At least that is what happened everywhere else. That suggests the middle of February will see the worst infection rate and numbers will improve rapidly afterward. The fiscal measures, already announced, will be in evidence quickly.
The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (H-Shares) continues to pause in a reasonably orderly manner in the region of the 200-day MA. A sustained move above 7000 would confirm a return to medium-term demand dominance.