China Property
Comment of the Day

June 01 2010

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

China Property

Fears that China's tightening will result in a much deeper property market correction as well as continued anxiety centring on Eurozone debt have had a negative impact on sentiment towards industrial metals. All have pulled back to one extent or another. Tin remains the relative strength leader while lead, in particular, has experienced significant technical deterioration.

Eoin Treacy's view Copper has experienced too abrupt declines over the last few months. The first found support in the region of the 200-day MA and rallied impressively to post a new recovery high. The second is testing the MA and needs to hold above the recent low near 390¢ to bolster the medium-term bullish outlook.

Aluminium encountered resistance in the region of $2500 in April and has now pulled back to test the $2000 level and the February low. While oversold in the short-term, a sustained move back above $2100 is needed to indicate demand is beginning to regain the upper hand.

Lead formed a first step below its Type-2 top from February and broke below $2000 in mid May. A sustained move back above $2125 is required question scope for further downside.

Zinc broke below the February low last week and needs to sustain a move back above $2141 to suggest demand has regained the upper hand.

Nickel continues to pause above $20,000 but a sustained move above $22,000 is required to confirm support in this area.

Tin remains a relative performer in the industrial metal sector. It has held most of the 10-week advance from the February low and a sustained move below $17,000 would be required to question scope for some further higher to lateral ranging.

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