Chinese Banks Rally After Huijin Begins Increasing Holdings
Last month's announcement that Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc. would repurchase stock for the first time in four decades was very different from what Huijin is doing, said Vitaliy Katsenelson, chief investment officer at Denver-based Investment Management Associates, which manages $60 million.
"China's sovereign wealth fund is not Warren Buffett," said Katsenelson, who said his long-only fund has avoided investments that have any exposure to China. "When Warren Buffett says he's buying Berkshire Hathaway, he actually thinks it's undervalued. China says that, but it doesn't necessarily mean that, they're just trying to create confidence."
While the purchases didn't significantly increase Huijin's holdings of 35.4 percent in ICBC, 57.1 percent in Construction Bank, 40 percent in Agricultural Bank and 67.6 percent in Bank of China, the fund plans to make further acquisitions over the next 12 months, the lenders said.
Huijin sold 40 billion yuan of bonds in August as it increased investment in banks, according to the website of Chinabond, the official bond clearing house. The Beijing-based investment company, set up in 2003, became a subsidiary of CIC in 2007 when the sovereign wealth fund was established.
Eoin Treacy's view A
subscriber kindly forwarded this informative academic report
dated October 2006 which deals with how and why the Chinese banks were bailed
out five years ago. It is instructive reading since a number of the issues that
allowed nonperforming loans to become such a problem last time are still relevant
today.
The banking
sector has been the focus of government attempts to sanitise the 2009 stimulus
package and to curtail speculation in the property market. Share prices have
suffered over the last year as repeated reserve hikes weighed on investor sentiment.
China's
A-share market is heavily influenced by central government policy. Sectors with
the largest weighting Financials (34.1%), Industrial (17.6%) Materials (13.9%)
and Energy (8.54%) are central to the investment led economic growth upon which
the country depends.
In 2005,
the Chinese stock market had been the worst performer, globally, for more than
a year. The government announced it was going to support the stock market and
followed through with large purchases. This was a green light for investors
who pushed the Index to an impressive peak above 6000 by late 2007.
In the
2008, Central Huijin Investments began
to support the financial sector by increasing its holdings of bank shares. The
Shanghai A-Share Index was among the first to bottom and led to the upside until
mid 2009 when the scheduled release of previously non tradable shares increased
supply and weighed on the market.
Central
Huijin Investments is again increasing its position in China's banks. The deepening
sense of pessimism internationally towards China's economic prospects and the
near hysteria that has been aroused by the private lending debacle in Wenzhou
may have prompted government action. To what extent they are willing to support
the market has yet to be made clear.
In Hong
Kong ICBC, Bank
of China, Bank of Communications,
China Construction Bank, China
Merchants Bank, Agricultural Bank of
China and China Citic Bank all accelerated
lower, found at least short-term support last week and rallied well today. A
closing of the oversold condition relative to the 200-day MA appears to be underway.
Last week's lows will have to hold if medium-term support building is beginning.