HONG KONG - It is weather with global breadbasket implications.

Even as senior Chinese officials exhort local officials to do everything possible to cope with a severe drought in the country's wheat belt, the government is trying to reassure the public that food prices will not rise.

China's drought-control headquarters posted a statement on its Web site on Sunday that described conditions as "grim" across a wide area of the wheat belt in Northern China and called for emergency irrigation efforts.

Agricultural experts say it is too early to assess the damage to the wheat harvest.

"We are in the winter months now, when it is typically drier anyway, so the seedlings should still be alive," said an expert at Shandong Agricultural University who would provide only his family name, Wang. "But if the weather turns warmer and there is still no rain, then we will not be talking about lower agricultural production, but rather zero production, because the seedlings will all be dead."

The worries go beyond China, which has essentially been self-sufficient in grain for decades. The concern is that China, with 1.3 billion mouths to feed, may need to import wheat in volume, creating shortages elsewhere.

Wheat prices in Chicago jumped nearly 2 percent on Tuesday when the United Nations' food agency issued a rare alert that China's crop was in trouble, and prices remain near their highest level since a steep spike in commodity prices in 2008.

David Fuller's view It will take a dramatic improvement in crop conditions this year to avoid price spikes for staple foods which could exceed those seen in 1H 2008. Three years later, global reserves of most foods are lower and the total population of our planet is larger.

Wheat (monthly, weekly & daily) led the surge in grain and bean prices last July when Russia's crop was devastated by what commentators described as the country's hottest weather in 100 years. The price of wheat doubled on that initial upside move before commencing a lengthy consolidation of gains and forming the first step above the base formation. The advance has resumed and a decline back beneath $8, which appears unlikely anytime soon, would be required to question seriously current scope for additional gains. These should include a test of the psychological $10 level, and potentially a challenge of the 2008 peak in coming months.