Chinese economy and markets
Comment of the Day

July 28 2010

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Chinese economy and markets

Eoin Treacy's view This is one of a number of reports I have seen recently expressing a cautiously optimistic view on the Chinese market and highlighting the contraction in the A-Share - H-share premium as something that implies value. Most are still leaning towards a retest of the recent lows as a likely scenario before a more emphatic rally takes hold in Q3 or Q4.

Prices for the A-shares and H-Shares have rallied sharply over the last couple of weeks and are already pretty close to the target ranges discussed above. This price action is impressive, helps to put at least a short-term floor beneath the market and is rapidly unwinding the overextension relative to the 200-day MA. If it can hold approximately half of its recent gains on the next pullback, we can expect additional gains over the medium term.

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