Chip Off the Old Block: Baby Autonomies
Comment of the Day

March 28 2013

Commentary by David Fuller

Chip Off the Old Block: Baby Autonomies

My thanks to Iain Little and Bruce Albrecht for this superb publication, published by Global Thematic Investors. Here is the introduction
Mighty rivers course through the economies of the developing world, carrying with them the aspirations of the New Men, the heroes of GTI's emerging middle class theme. These rivers are irrigated by yet vaster source waters of inland seas and, way down-river, virgin lands are shaped and moulded by these massive econo-systems.

These mighty rivers are the Baby Autonomies, and if we invest in them, we invest alongside their powerful parents, the source waters that gave them life and nourish them still. Neither parent nor offspring care greatly about events in Washington, Brussels or Athens; their futures instead are tied to the urgent and limitless desires of the New Men, whose incomes rise on flood plains of prosperity to match those of the developed world.

And in a world where growth is scarce, this world is where we must now focus our attention. And as investors looking for value, we should be prepared to pay up for growth.

We've written for some time about why global autonomies -globally focused multinational companies- are the safest way for the private investor to access growth in a low-growth world (a world where global GDP is nudging 3%). We called this phenomenon "Leviathan", after Thomas Hobbes' literary invention, and maintained that "Today's Nestlé is Yesterday's Treasury Bond". So it has proved.

David Fuller's view In addition to reading this issue of GTI, subscribers may wish to print off a copy as well, preferably in colour, as I have done. Why? Because it is a template guide for investing in corporate Autonomies, which I think will remain among the best long-term investment vehicles available.

The best performing Autonomies since last November, when most stock markets commenced strong rallies, have seen their valuations increase in line with performance. When they eventually lose upside momentum we can expect a process of mean reversion towards their rising MAs. Those are buying opportunities if the overall upward trends remain intact.

The most successful Autonomies will generally trade at higher valuations than broadly diversified market indices, due to their often dominant positions within sectors.

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