Clive Hale's View from the Bridge: Likes, damn lies and history
Once upon a time central bankers used to be seen and not heard; the Old Lady of Threadneedle Street occasionally "raised an eyebrow" but very little else. Today they are as ubiquitous as reality TV and even less entertaining... The game show host of the week is none other than the Chairman of the Federal Reserve and in his new role as educator of the masses he is spreading lies and misinformation in much the same way that he does in his day job.
The ECB is well capitalised", he told a group of students at George Washington University. Of course it is, if you assume that the odd trillion of toxic collateral that has been passed their way by European banks, in exchange for some real "folding", is valued at par, sans haircut or any attempt to mark the price to market.
His biggest whopper, which he made under oath to Congress in 2009, was that "the Federal Reserve will not monetize the debt". Yet three years later he hasn't been locked up, but is still in office spouting yet more nonsense. He also told the students, many of whom will have been scarred for life by this experience, that a return to the gold standard was an anachronism that couldn't, and wouldn't, happen.
David Fuller's view In the, be careful what you wish for department,
would we really enjoy a return to a gold standard?
Some
pundits have fantasised about a nought or two on the price as a nice reward
for today's investment in bullion. I have long held the view that although gold
remains a sound monetary asset, there will never be another gold standard, partly
for that very reason. Central banks like the system the way it is because fiat
currencies empower them, not least to float away much of the national debt over
time.
However,
if I am wrong in saying that neither the USA nor any other major country will
ever again accept a gold standard, we could probably expect that government
to confiscate its citizens private holding, just as we saw with FDR
in 1933:
Executive
Order 6102 required U.S. citizens to deliver on or before May 1, 1933, all but
a small amount of gold coin, gold bullion, and gold certificates owned by them
to the Federal Reserve, in exchange for $20.67 (equivalent to $371.10 today[3])
per troy ounce. Under the Trading With the Enemy Act of October 6, 1917, as
amended on March 9, 1933, violation of the order was punishable by fine up to
$10,000 ($167,700 if adjusted for inflation as of 2010) or up to ten years in
prison, or both.
Denuded
of one's gold, or if hidden, living in fear of confiscation and imprisonment,
one would also have to endure a deflationary crunch as everyone's bad debts
came home to roost.
Personally,
knowing the means by which we can at least partially protect ourselves against
inflation, I would prefer to retain the freedom to invest and trade gold and
other assets likely to remain stores of value, including equities.