Clive Hale's View from the Bridge: The rain in Spain�
Comment of the Day

February 15 2010

Commentary by David Fuller

Clive Hale's View from the Bridge: The rain in Spain�

This week's letter focuses on the EU's problem in dealing with Greece and commences with some comments from Open Europe
The debate over the legality of the UK government taking the country to war with Iraq is about to be eclipsed by the decision the EU will have to make over bailing out the Greeks. Of the 10 options listed by "Open Europe" only one is strictly legal; the early release of cohesion funds. As Open Europe describe it - "An early release of cohesion funds to Greece under the EU's structural funds or through the involvement of the European Investment Bank (EIB) has been mentioned as a way to bailout Greece. Greece is one the largest recipients of EU subsidies. The 2007-2013 EU budget allocated €20.2 billion in structural funds to Greece, with some €18.1 billion of this still to be paid out. The disbursement of the remainder of these funds could be fast-tracked to provide Greece with extra cash in case of a liquidity crisis. This has already been done under the EU's economic stimulus package for central and eastern European members, to help them cope with the economic downturn. Fast-tracking the payment of the structural funds can be decided by the European Commission, so it would be by far the easiest option to execute."

They go on to say that - "In one sense this operation would be budget neutral as the funds are already allocated to the EU budget. But in another sense, there is a de facto cost to taxpayers for raising the funds in the first place. In addition, the early release of structural funds would effectively reward Greece's mismanagement of its economy, which in turn raises moral hazard concerns and sends the wrong signals to other countries. Greece also has a weak track record in absorbing the structural funds and allocating money to value-added projects, which begs the question of how effective the funds would be."

So the only legal option under the current EU constitution is of dubious merit as the Greeks would not be under any obligation to take steps to "balance their budget". Of the other nine, four come in the category of probably not legal, in two cases it is unclear and in the remaining three the answer is "no". The EU response has been greeted like a limp handshake, but the truth is that they don't have one that's legal or that they could sell to their voters. Re-jigging the constitution is going to take the agreement of all member states, which is highly unlikely when they realise that six of the 10 options would involve their own taxpayers footing the bill, and there isn't the time to achieve it anyway. Things will start going downhill very fast if a cunning plan is not devised in the next week or so.

David Fuller's view The EU's eventual solution to the problem of its indebted states is presumably more elusive without political union, a long-term option which I assume is losing favour among Euroland's voters as the costs of a possible bailout are considered.

A more palatable long-term alternative, I would have thought, is privatisation of Greece's many state-owned sectors, as proposed by chief economist Michael Massourakis of Alpha Bank in this column for the Financial Times.

Whatever the EU and Greece decide, the ramifications of this debt crisis are likely to extend well beyond Europe.

I assume that it will snuff out an earlier revival of interest in the UK, towards joining the euro zone as a 'solution' to our banking crisis and recessionary problems.

It should also dampen interest in currency union, previously expressed by Asean countries and in other regions of the globe.

While Greece cannot default, the euro can and is certainly weakening, no doubt to the relief of the ECB and Europe's leading exporters.

The euro has lost its appeal as an alternative reserve currency for the duration of this sovereign debt crisis among some of Euroland's member states.

In the 'be careful what you wish for' department, US Treasury officials' previous cant about their preference for a strong currency is likely to become a concern before long, especially if unemployment hovers around 10%.

These latter two factors should help to sustain investor interest in gold bullion.

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