Cloud computing review
Eoin Treacy's view The
Nasdaq-100 has been a clear leader among
developed market indices over the last few years, not least because its major
constituents are heavily leveraged to the growth of the global consumer. A significant
number of the Index's best performing shares have either been focused on cloud
computing or on the cutting edge of healthcare. Both of these sectors have the
capacity to introduce cost efficiencies which were not previously available
and therefore can create value.
I performed a click through of the Nasdaq-100 on March
5th 2010 looking at 20-year charts to find companies they were breaking
out of long-term bases. The commonality evident in the results only became apparent
to me a few months later. They were all involved in cloud computing. Since then,
I have performed a number of reviews of the sector with the most recent on June
7th.
With
so many indices now testing their respective 200-day MAs I thought it might
be instructive to revisit this leading sector to ascertain if these shares are
still outperforming.
Apple's
four-month reaction remains limited to a reversion towards the 200-day MA and
it has bounced impressively from that area over the last two weeks. A sustained
move below $300 would be required to question medium-term potential for additional
upside.
IBM
hit a new high in May and its subsequent reaction has been comparatively shallow.
A sustained move below the $155 area would be needed to begin to question medium-term
upside potential. Amazon, BMC
Software and Check Point Software Technologies
have similar patterns.
EMC
Software, Citrix Systems and Oracle
posted slightly larger reactions but found at least short-term support in the
region of their respective 200-day MAs.
Salesforce.com
found support in the region of the 200-day MA in March and has trended back
up to test the peak near $150. A sustained move below $130 would be required
to check medium-term scope for additional upside.
Teradata
remains in a consistent medium-term uptrend defined by a progression of higher
reaction lows one above another. It broke out of the most recent range last
week and a sustained move below $50 would be required to begin to question the
consistency of the medium-term uptrend.
Cognizant
Technologies has broken its medium-term progression of higher reaction lows
which marks a clear inconsistency. It now appears to be in the process of finding
support in the region of its MA. However, given the technical deterioration,
some additional time and a sustained move above $75 will likely be required
to signal a return to medium-term demand dominance.
Juniper
Networks failed to sustain the breakout from the more than decade long base
in March and fell precipitously, particularly since late May. It appears to
have found at least short-term support in the region of $30 and a sustained
move below $29.15 would be required to check potential for an additional technical
rally.
Google
has also pulled back rather sharply over the last few months and is now testing
last year's lows. A break of the progression of lower rally highs, currently
near $533 would be required to confirm the return of medium-term demand in this
region.
In conclusion,
many of the above shares continue to display leadership credentials and exhibit
some of the more consistent uptrends on offer currently. The fact that so many
have bounced from above or in the region of their 200-day MAs is a positive
development and supports our contention that the current reaction can still
be characterised as a pause within an overall medium-term bullish environment.
(Also see my piece on relative strength leadership posted in Comment of the
Day on Friday).