Coal May Miss Out on Gains From Japan Quake: Energy Markets
Power-station coal at the Australian port of Newcastle was at $130.85 a ton in the week through March 11, according to the IHS McCloskey Petersfield, U.K.-based provider of data. Prices for this week are scheduled to be released today. They rose to a 30-month high of $138.50 in January amid the winter demand peak and flooding in parts of Australia.
Helicopters dropped water on crippled reactors at Tokyo Electric Power Co.'s Fukushima Dai-Ichi station yesterday as engineers battled to prevent the spread of radiation from the facility, 135 miles (220 kilometers) north of Tokyo. The temblor, which struck off the north of Japan's main island of Honshu on March 11, has killed more than 6,400 people and left more than 10,000 unaccounted for, the National Police Agency said.
The July 2007 earthquake that shut the 8.2-gigawatt Kashiwazaki-Kariwa plant boosted Japan's thermal-coal imports by 10 percent in 2007 to 101 million tons, Jeffrey Landsberg, president of New York-based Commodore Research, said in an e- mailed note. Purchases rose to 105 million tons in 2008 before declining to 92 million in 2009, when the world's biggest atomic power station resumed operations, he said.
Eoin Treacy's view Thermal
coal futures bottomed in early 2009 and have sustained a progression of
higher reaction lows since. Coal hit a medium-term peak near $82.50 in January
and found support in the region of the 200-day MA from late February. A sustained
move below $74 would now be required to question the consistency of the medium-term
uptrend. Also see David's comments on coal yesterday.
This
Chart Library Performance Filter
of 23 global coal companies may be of interest to subscribers. Here are some
examples that have particularly interesting characteristics.
Australian
listed Coal & Allied, which is majority
owned by Rio Tinto and yields 7.16%, appears to be in the process of finding
support in the region of the 200-day MA. A sustained move below $110 would be
required to question the consistency of the medium-term uptrend.
US listed
Arch Coal, remains in an orderly medium-term
uptrend. It completed a 10-month base in September 2009 and ranged between $20
and $30 until early November 2010. It broke upwards and has been ranging above
$30 since. A sustained move below that level would be required to question medium-term
upside potential.
There
are a number of shares in the sector that have outperformed by a considerable
margin such as South African listed Exxaro
or US listed MLP Alliance Resource Partners.
These remain in consistent medium-term uptrends but the Coal & Allied and
Arch Coal appear to offer a comparatively risk adjusted way of accessing the
market subject to due diligence. .
The US
listed Market Vectors Coal ETF remains
in a relatively consistent medium-term uptrend and has been ranging above $45
since late last year. A sustained move below the 200-day MA, currently near
$41.50 would be required to question medium-term upside potential.