“There are worries about the situation in Ivory Coast,” Jerome Jourquin, head of agricultural commodities derivatives at Aurel BGC, a broker in Paris, said by e-mail today. “If we have a civil war again, it will be very bullish for cocoa again. At this stage, it is pure speculation.”

Eoin Treacy's view Cocoa is another commodity where production is dominated by a single country, in this case Ivory Coast. Domestic political or weather driven events can therefore have an outsized impact on global prices.

New York Cocoa has been forming a first step above its nearly 8-month base since late July and hit a new recovery high yesterday. A sustained move below $2360 would now be required to question medium-term scope for additional upside.

London Cocoa has exhibited a clearer progression of higher reaction lows since December. This sequence would need to be broken to question medium-term scope for further upside.