Cereals, iron ore and oil. The three commodities, the most important for the day-to-day working of economies around the world, could derail the recovery next year.

The cost of cereals, oil and iron ore has surged already to two-year highs, up between 40 and 150 per cent from the lows of 2009 at the height of the global financial crisis, and analysts and traders generally anticipate further increases into next year.

The three are critical for the world - both in economic and political terms. For example, high prices for cereals, such as wheat, corn and rice, not only push up food inflation, but could also trigger food riots. The cost of iron ore, used to make steel, is critical to the global economy as it filters into steel prices and, ultimately, into the cost of everyday goods such as cars and washing machines. The same is true for oil prices, which add inflation at the petrol station, but also along the supply chain due to higher power and transport costs. Iron ore and oil are key for the profitability of some of the world's largest heavy industries, including mining, steelmaking and petrochemical.

David Fuller's view Rising commodity prices became one of the main stories of the last decade. They have been the primary source of inflation in 2010, and we can expect to hear more about the higher cost of strategic resources in 2011.

Only sharply higher short-term interest rates and/or global recession can significantly interrupt this cycle as we last saw in 2H 2008, although benign weather conditions in regions where the world's main agricultural production occurs would help.