Sovereign debt risks, high unemployment, the threat of deflation, regulatory uncertainty. Just a few of the anxieties currently keeping financial markets on edge and which set a less than auspicious backdrop for commodities to stage a strong performance in 2011.

However, raw materials markets are proving highly resilient to aftershocks from the financial crisis. In markets as diverse as copper, sugar, tin, cotton, gold, palladium and pork bellies, prices have now exceeded the peaks set in the bull market of 2006-2008; oil prices are again trading consistently above $90/barrel, while in the UK the cold snap pushed gas prices to almost double where they were in the run up to Christmas 2009.

Commodities usually perform best in the latter stages of economic recovery: it takes time for the spare capacity and excess inventories built up during a downturn to get worked off. But this cycle looks different. Raw materials shortages, infrastructure constraints and resource nationalism continue to hamper production growth for many commodities, while emerging market demand is already soaring. In the west, policymakers, are leaning heavily toward pro-growth monetary policy and appear unusually tolerant of inflation. The expansion phase of this economic cycle looks likely to exert even more stress on commodity supply than ever before.

David Fuller's view The previous commodity super-cycle during the 1970s commenced in the relatively early years of my career and I remember it well. For industrial commodities, it was driven mainly by developed economies, led by the USA and Germany, plus one developing economy at the time - Japan. Countries creating the 1970s super-cycle had combined populations of little more than 1 billion.

The global population in 1970 was only 3.8 billion, rising to 4 billion by 1975 and 4.5 billion by 1980. Mother Earth's population is forecast to reach 7 billion either late this year or in 2012, and countries with the most people are now voracious consumers of commodities as their economies grow. Today, global GDP growth is much more broadly based than ever before.

For these reasons, plus signs that a 21-year bear market for gold and many other resources was ending, following real (inflation-adjusted) all-time lows, Fullermoney forecast nearly a decade ago that the world had commenced a new supercycle for commodities. We think that it will be bigger and last considerably longer than the 1970s commodity supercycle.

Since I agree with so much of Roger Jones' article, it is easier to point out areas of disagreement.

I question his statement that OPEC has 5 million barrels of spare capacity. But even if it does, and most of this would have to come from Saudi Arabia, would they supply the extra crude required? OPEC cannot be thrilled by the soft USD.

As for gold (monthly, weekly & daily), it had lost favour following a very good run last year but this may now be changing. Gold led the commodity market recovery and is still well below its 1980 high on an inflation-adjusted basis. Consequently, I doubt that it will peak in what may still be only be the first half of a commodity market supercycle.