The consultants we spoke with who rejected the notion of disruption in their industry cited the difficulty of getting large partnerships to agree on revolutionary strategies. They pointed to the purported impermeability of their brands and reputations. They claimed that too many things could never be commoditized in consulting. Why try something new, they asked, when what they’ve been doing has worked so well for so long?

We are familiar with these objections—and not at all swayed by them. If our long study of disruption has led us to any universal conclusion, it is that every industry will eventually face it. The leaders of the legal services industry would once have held that the franchise of the top firms was virtually unassailable, enshrined in practice and tradition—and, in many countries, in law. And yet disruption of these firms is undeniably under way. In a recent survey by AdvanceLaw, 72% of general counsel said that they will be migrating a larger percentage of work away from white-shoe firms.

Furthermore, the pace of change being managed by the traditional clients of consulting firms will continue to accelerate, with devastating effects on providers that don’t keep up. If you are currently on the leadership team of a consultancy and you’re inclined to be sanguine about disruption, ask yourself: Is your firm changing (at least) as rapidly as your most demanding clients?

Finally, although we cannot forecast the exact progress of disruption in the consulting industry, we can say with utter confidence that whatever its pace, some incumbents will be caught by surprise. The temptation for market leaders to view the advent of new competitors with a mixture of disdain, denial, and rationalization is nearly irresistible. U.S. Steel posted record profit margins in the years prior to its unseating by the minimills; in many ways it was blind to its disruption. As we and others have observed, there may be nothing as vulnerable as entrenched success.

Eoin Treacy's view

With the rapid pace of technological innovation no sector is immune to disruption. The consulting sector has existed in a bubble for a long time because they have been able to sustain the illusion of fully customisable solutions when in many cases what is being offered is a template driven product. There will of course always be a market for truly customised answers to difficult questions but what can be automated eventually will be as technological innovation marches onwards.

The majority of large consulting companies are privately held. Among those that are publicly traded:

Accenture remains in a reasonably consistent uptrend, but needs to hold the region of the trend mean if potential for continued upside is to be given the benefit of the doubt. 

Booz Allen Hamilton deals almost exclusively with the US government. The share broke emphatically upwards following the Presidential election and some consolidation of that gain is now underway. 

Quintiles IMS Health has been ranging in the region of its previous peak since September and a sustained move below the trend mean will be required to question medium-term scope for a successful breakout.