Consumer companies
Eoin Treacy's view The evolution of the global consumer
sector has been facilitated by improving governance in some of the world's largest
population centres which has fostered social mobility. This has raised hundreds
of millions of people out of poverty and into the consuming class and the trend
is likely to continue over the coming decades.
Where
once companies offering the types of products we tend to take for granted in
our daily lives were considered boring and defensive, the modern reality is
that they represent an important growth story In this regard they offer the
security of strong cash flows, healthy balance sheets, strong records of dividend
growth but also the capacity to grow earnings over time.
The
SPDR Consumer Staples ETF has been trending
consistently higher since 2009 and rallied particularly well from the November
lows. While somewhat overextended relative to the 200-day MA at present a sustained
move below the trend mean, currently near $35, would be required to question
medium-term upside potential.
Some
of the sector's better performing instruments are even more overextended. Potential
for mean reversion is increasing. The result
of a High/Low filter of the constituents of the consumer section of my Favourite
highlights the fact that half of the 42 companies have hit at least new 3-month
highs in the last five days. The majority are new all-time highs.
Rather
than concentrate on those that have already rallied impressively I thought it
would be more instructive to review some that have broken out more recently.
Estee
Lauder is one of the original constituents of the Autonomies because of
its global reach and strong record of dividend increases. The share spent much
of 2012 in a range but broke out today. A sustained move below $60 would be
required to question medium-term scope for additional upside.
Colgate
Palmolive completed a more than six-month range three weeks ago and a sustained
move below $105 would be required to question medium-term upside potential.
Revlon
has been ranging below $20 since at least late 2009 but broke emphatically above
that level three weeks ago and a sustained move below $18 would be required
to question recovery potential.
Clearwater
Paper was spun off from Potlatch Corp in 2008. It produces approximately
half of all the own brand tissue paper sold in the USA. The share completed
a more than two-year range in January and has been consolidating below $50 for
the last few weeks. A sustained move below $43 would be required to question
medium-term upside potential.
UK
listed McBride has a market cap of £200
million and produces own brand cosmetics and household products for retailers
and department stores. The share has a rounding characteristic consistent with
accumulation and a sustained move below the 200-day MA, currently near 132p,
would be required to question medium-term upside potential.