Eoin Treacy's view

It was a busy week with The Chart Seminar in Chicago, a talk to the Chicago chapter of the Market Technicians Association and the Forum in Vermont. As ever the natural beauty of Basin Harbour offered a soothing backdrop to the discussions at the event and the unseasonably mild weather was a blessing.   

I’ve recorded an audio to accompany the presentation I gave at the Forum entitled “Is the risk worth it?” which can be found in the Subscriber’s Audio section and here is a link to the associated PDF for your convenience.

On my first visit to the Forum in 2012 I devoted my talk to the Autonomies and the merits of companies with a history of increasing dividends not least as fixed income yields compressed. It was therefore interesting that this year each delegate was presented with an almanac of such companies and a talk by Tom Cameron on the advantages of compound interest and income which was well received. This is still an attractive sector not least for companies growing their dividends quicker than inflation but it is no longer cheap.

In general. speakers at the Forum are favourably disposed to gold. It was therefore interesting that while a number were still proposing that gold is capable of reaffirming the bull trend, that a greater degree of caution was being exercised as prices test the lower side of the more than yearlong range. Ian McAvity pointed out that silver holdings in SLV have been increasing on down days and recently hit a new all-time high. ETF holdings of silver do not have the same influence on price as gold holdings but the divergence between holdings and prices does emphasise how oversold silver prices are. 

Tony Dwyer from Canaccord Genuity described himself as the 2nd biggest bull on Wall Street and in his presentation entitled “It’s not too late” compared today’s environment to that which prevailed in 1995 before the tech bubble. He was unabashedly bullish and believes the market is only going to accelerate higher from here, led by large cap growth stocks. He defined these as consumer goods, information technology and healthcare.  This was my third year at the Forum and I had expected to be one of the only optimists, however Tony’s presentation suggests that those who are long are doubling down as the trend matures. He may yet be right but I was struck how it is only now that a raging bull accepted an invitation to the Forum when we are five years into an uptrend. This is the time when increased diligence and money control discipline will pay off.