Could the U.S. become Argentina?
Comment of the Day

April 22 2010

Commentary by David Fuller

Could the U.S. become Argentina?

My thanks to a subscriber for this provocative article by Richard W Rahn for The Washington Times. Here is a brief section
Argentina has extensive labor regulations to favor unions, which greatly increase the cost of hiring. The Obama administration has supported costly labor regulations that the unions favor, which eventually will drive up the cost of hiring workers and result in higher unemployment.

Argentina has a long history of deficit spending, which, in turn, has made government debt burdens so high that the government refuses to pay the debt to the private domestic and international debt holders. Over the next 30 years, economists associated with the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland, estimate (as have many U.S. economists) that the U.S. public debt will rise to between 200 percent and 500 percent of GDP. (It is now about 60 percent.) Debt levels of 200 percent to 500 percent cannot be supported; hence, the debt holders will face erosion of their capital through either inflation or nonpayment.

The U.S. is not yet Argentina, but, if many of the policies of the Obama administration are not reversed, America will only get poorer and, in as little as 30 years, become a middle-income country, while dozens of other countries will enjoy a higher standard of living.

David Fuller's view The answer to Richard Rahn's headline question is, of course, a resounding no. However comparisons with Argentina's history remain timely reminders that national prosperity is not a birthright. It can only be achieved and maintained by good governance and hard work.

Moreover, globalisation and the increasing acceptance of capitalism in its various forms have made the world a more competitive village, in which the relative success of countries can rise or fall more quickly than ever before. This is arguably for the greater good, shortages of natural resources and environmental concerns excepted.


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