Cresud: Value of Its Parts Much Greater Than Its Whole
Comment of the Day

February 18 2010

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Cresud: Value of Its Parts Much Greater Than Its Whole

Thanks to a subscriber for this interesting article by Don Carroll in Seeking Alpha. Here is a section
What does this mean? The value of CRESY's ownership interests and cash on its balance sheet alone amount to $482 million compared to the current market cap of $557 million. Also it should be noted the ownership interests above are liquid, publicly traded companies so the value is both transparent and easily accessible should CRESY need the money. What about CRESY's land? You are getting CRESY 1.2 million acres (485,623 hectares) of land for free. In fact, the market is telling you it is worthless. Hardly, I say. CRESY has the land listed at book value worth $112 million or $93 an acre. What does farmland fetch in Argentina? I will get to this below.

I will note though in 2008-2009, Argentina saw the worst drought in the past 70 years, and this had a negative effect on CRESY's agriculture production and sales business. 2009 was a tough year for crop yields and production, but this doesn't mean the land and farming business of CRESY are worthless as it brought in $20 million in revenue in the recent quarter even taking into account sales plummeting of 60% and 67% respectively in wheat and soybeans.

CRESY, a 74 year old company, is turning into a modern day Latin American Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) as management has increasingly showed the eye for attractive assets at reasonable costs. Because of the massive land that CRESY owns, it is also becoming a nice macro inflation play as hard assets such as land did fantastically well during the commodity bull market and high inflation period in the 70's. Combine that with a nice 2.5% dividend, 40% owned by insiders in the company and high growth real estate business CRESY is involved with in IRSA, the company's value is being misunderstood.

Eoin Treacy's view A pre-subscriber raised questions about Cresud's corporate governance back in 2007 and I have no idea if these alleged issues have been worked out. However, the share has performed in line with most of the agriculture sector; falling sharply to an October 2008 low and rallying subsequently.

It pulled back in a sharper reaction recently, found support in the region of the 200-day moving average and posted an upside weekly key reversal. It is following through this week and a sustained move below $11 would be required to question scope for additional upside.

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