Cyclical Bear Ending; Secular Bull to Resume; Investor Feedback & FAQs
Comment of the Day

April 07 2020

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Cyclical Bear Ending; Secular Bull to Resume; Investor Feedback & FAQs

Thanks to a subscriber for this report by Mike Wilson at Morgan Stanley. Here is a section:

Eoin Treacy's view

Here is a link to the full report and here is a section from it: 

The idea of Modern Monetary Theory scandalised investors a year ago but very much the reality today as central banks fall over themselves to accommodate the efforts of governments to spend their way out of the trouble. My contention since early this year was the coronavirus will be temporary but the monetary and fiscal effects will be very long lasting.


The most important chart to monitor in my opinion is the 30-Year US Treasury yield. Inflation is likely to show up first at the long end of the curve considering how sensitive long bonds are to inflation expectations. It hit a low of 69 basis points in March and may now be posting a higher reaction low. While there is still scope for some volatility as investors reshuffle risk exposure in the aftermath of the crash, if the 30-year yield sustains a move above 2% it would be reasonable to conclude inflation is a more credible risk.

Copper prices continue hold to the $2 area, against all expectations. While it is too early to conclude this is sustainable, the relative strength of some industrial resources compared to global stocks suggests some internal strength.

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