Danone Sales Beat Estimates as Chinese Seek Safer Baby Food
Danone doesn't expect demand for baby-nutrition products to weaken in China, Terisse told analysts today.
“The conditions for safety are not really standard in this country and therefore the need of the consumer for safety remains very strong,” Terisse said. “It's difficult to see any sign for weakening of the demand at least in the short term.”
Exporting more from Europe to China isn't a sustainable solution for meeting rising demand and the priority is to adapt / the company's product portfolio locally, the executive said. Most U.K. supermarkets have introduced restrictions on sales of powdered baby milk following a surge in exports to China as health scandals in the country undermined confidence in local brands, the British Broadcasting Corp. reported April 9. Fonterra, based in Auckland, New Zealand, said Jan. 24 that the discovery of the additive may become a trade concern even though there was no risk to health.
Danone said infant-nutrition sales also benefited from a later Chinese New Year. Many workers based in Chinese cities stock up on items such as baby food before returning to villages for their celebrations, according to Exane BNP Paribas analyst Jeff Stent. The later timing of the holiday had a positive effect on sales of three percentage points, Terisse estimated.
Eoin Treacy's view France listed Danone is a global leader
in dairy products, baby food, bottled water and clinical nutrition. The company
derived almost as much revenue from the rest of the world as it did from Europe
in 2012 and has a solid record of dividend increases. It is also an S&P
Europe 350 Dividend Aristocrat yielding 2.62%. As such it qualifies for our
Autonomy designation.
The share has generally underperformed
other global food companies but has exhibited evidence of a return to demand
dominance over the last month and hit a new five-year high today. (Also see
Comment of the Day on March
8th).
By and large, a process of mean reversion is evident for a number of the consumer
related Autonomies over the last couple of weeks as they unwind short-term overbought
conditions. Nestle, for example, posted
a large downside weekly key reversal three weeks ago and gapped lower yesterday
in an extension of its mean reversion. Kerry
Group has a similar pattern while Associated
British Foods also appears to have entered a process of mean reversion.
Johnson & Johnson and Kimberly
Clark both posted downside key day reversals yesterday but countermanded
them today.
While on the one hand mean reversion is a probability for a number of the Autonomies,
I thought it would be also instructive to highlight some additional constituents
that are either breaking out or have returned to test their respective 200-day
MAs.
In the cosmetics sector, NuSkin Enterprises
is globally diversified with the majority of revenue derived in Asia. The share
experienced collateral damage from Herbalife last year at least in part because
it has a similar sales strategy. Revenue remains on an upward trajectory nonetheless.
The share has been ranging lower in a volatile manner for a year but rallied
last week to break the medium-term progression of lower rally highs and a sustained
move below the 200-day MA, currently near €44, would be required to question
medium-term recovery potential.
In the utilities sector, Emerson Electric
had been ranging below $54 for more than a year and broke upwards in January.
It pulled back to test the region of the 200-day MA and the upper side of the
underlying range yesterday and will need to find support in this region if the
medium-term upside is to continue to be given the benefit of the doubt.
Samsung Electronics has an historic P/E of 13 and an Estimate P/E of 7.
The share has found support in the region of the 200-day MA on all but one pullback
since 2009 and retains an upward bias. A sustained move below KRW1.4 million
would be required to question medium-term scope for additional upside.
When we originally created the Autonomy designation, it was on the understanding
that the list would perpetually evolve as some constituents were deemed to no
longer satisfy the criteria and we became aware of more companies that fulfilled
them.
Australian listed Brambles yields 3.64%
and is one of the world's largest pallet and container pooling services businesses.
The company generated almost 90% of its revenue outside Australia in 2012. Amcor
is a similarly internationally diverse Australian packaging company producing
a broad range of plastic, fibre, metal and glass products. Brambles broke out
of a four-year base in February and has returned to test the region of the 200-day
MA where it appears to have found support. A sustained move below A$7.50 would
be required to question medium-term recovery potential. Amcor (4.04%) has rallied
more impressively but has also entered a process of mean reversion.
Netherlands listed DSM is a diversified
chemicals company and generated 40% of revenue from nutritional products in
2012. The company is globally diversified with Western Europe representing only
35% of revenue in 2012. The share yields 3.03% and hit a new all-time high today.
A sustained move below €43.75 would be required to question medium-term
potential for additional upside.
While Hong Kong listed Greatwall Motors
is still a predominately Chinese brand, it is one of the country's first auto
manufacturers to expand internationally. The share found support last week in
the region of the 200-day MA and a sustained move below HK$25 would be required
to question the consistency of the medium-term uptrend.