David Brooks: Poll Addict Confesses
This is an interesting behavioural column, published by the NYT and IHT. Here is the section that most interested me:
The second thing I know is that if you do have to look at polls, you should do it no more than once every few days, to get a general sense of the state of the race. I've seen the studies that show that people who check their stocks once a day get lower returns than people who check them once a quarter because they get distracted by noise and make terrible decisions. I've seen the work on information overload, which makes people depressed, stressed and freezes their brains. I know that checking the polls constantly is a recipe for self-deception and anxiety.
I know all this. But do I obey? Of course not. I check every few hours. I'm motivated by the illusion of immanent knowledge. I imagine that somehow the next batch of polling will contain some magic cross-tab about swing voters in Ohio that will satisfy my voracious curiosity and allay this irritable uncertainty.
I'm also motivated by the thrill of premature celebration. Elections aren't just about policy choices. They're status competitions. When the polls swing your way, you feel a surge of righteous affirmation. Your views are obviously correct! Your team's virtues are widely recognized! You get to see the humiliation and pain afflicting your foes.
When the polls swing the other way, well, who believes the polls anyway? Those idiots are obviously skewing the results. This has been a golden age for confirmation bias.
David Fuller's view It reminds me of screen watching - the biggest waste of time for investors and even traders. It is also stressful, as any screen watcher will know.
As for the US election, it has been going on for so long that it will be a relief to have it behind us.