Deepak Lalwani's India Report
Comment of the Day

November 02 2011

Commentary by David Fuller

Deepak Lalwani's India Report

My thanks to the author for the latest copy of his informative letter. Here is a brief sample showing information based on India's latest census:
There are 28 states and 7 Union territories in India
• 2011 census for India shows a total population of 1.21 bn or about one in six of people in the world are Indian
• Many Indian states have a population equivalent to European countries
• The combined population of India's two most populous states (U.P. and Maharashtra) with a combined population of 312m is greater than the population of USA
• Likewise, the combined population of India's five most populous states (UP, Maharashtra, Bihar, West Bengal, Andhra Pradesh) at 592 m is more than the population of the European Union's 28 member states of about 550 m
• A little more than 60% of Indians live in one of seven states: UP, Maharashtra, Bihar, West Bengal, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu
• The rising middle class will drive India's economy for the next 3 decades at least. The sheer numbers will help now
• However, India's huge population will keep it only as a middle income country on per capita GDP basis even in 30 years, despite it becoming the 3rd largest economy in the world
• %age decadal growth of population in India : 1951-61 to 2001-2011:

1951-61 : 21.64%
1961-71 : 24.85%
1971-81 : 24.66%
1981-91 : 23.87%
1991-2001 : 21.54%
2001-2011 : 17.64%
The latest census shows the lowest decadal growth since after Independence in 1947

David Fuller's view India has favourable demographics and enviable intellectual talent. Unfortunately, it is even better known for its lack of infrastructure and corruption.

At Fullermoney, we often say that governance is everything. This is certainly true for India and it may be viewed as a mixed blessing that corporate leaders are openly talking about the "absence of decision-making", as you can see from this short article kindly forwarded by a reader.

India's more progressive corporations have been unofficially setting the agenda for the country's growth for at least two decades, so I welcome their outspokenness, along with an increasingly vocal and rapidly growing middleclass.

Meanwhile, India still has an inflation problem of over 9% and the Reserve Bank of India increased short term rates by 25 basis points to 8.50% last week in the 13th consecutive hike since last year. Deepak Lalwani is optimistic that the RBI forecast of inflation easing to 7% by end-March 2010 is reasonable. If so, the stock market (weekly & daily) should be stronger by then.

Meanwhile, those of us with investments in India will have to remain patient. For those who share my long-term bullishness of India, but have yet to invest in this market, the current lull affords an opportunity to buy while the stock market remains well below its highs of 2008 and 2010.

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