Deepak Lalwani's India Report
In an effort to revive economic growth the Indian Government wants to push ahead with major transport and power projects in this fiscal year to March 2013. Prime Minister Dr Singh said India aims to award 9,500 kms of road projects and commission three new airports. While these announcements helped lift infrastructure and other shares on the stock market some key points remain unanswered. Because the devil, in India, lies in the detail. In execution. Many ground realities, which have stalled existing projects, have not been resolved. Local media estimates that about $ 27 bn of projects have stalled because of bottlenecks and hurdles that include slow land acquisition and environmental clearances. Decision making in Government has been paralysed because officials are afraid to clear decisions after a raft of corruption scandals have been exposed. Policy paralysis has contributed to the decelerating economic growth and holds back India from becoming an industrialised nation.
David Fuller's view India's government has certainly had sufficient
wakeup calls over the last two years. The frustrating fact is that India's economy
and stock market could really take off once again with some effective macro
governance. That is not rocket science and should be achievable. Most people
of influence within India know what needs to be done. Without some evidence
of consistency and economically sensible policies India will continue to lose
out on the FDI it needs. This would be a tragedy for a vast, young, mainly poor
but highly aspirational population.
Interestingly,
India's Sensex Index stepped back
from the brink last week with a clear upward dynamic in the form of a weekly
key reversal. There is some potential resistance above 17,000 but a close beneath
15,750 would now be required to offset current scope for sideways to higher
ranging. In a potentially significant outperformance, the Bombay
Banks Index saw an even bigger upward dynamic last week and is back above
its 200-day MA. A close beneath 10,400 would now be necessary to reverse this
improvement and reaffirm the medium-term downward bias.
My thanks
to a subscriber for this informative CNBC
video with an Indian investment manager.