Demographic trends that matter for investors
Demographic trends have implications for:
1. Productivity/Potential growth rates (how many in the "young" productive generation relative to the "old" generation)
2. Tax revenues and expenditures and hence budget balances (bigger government sector often needed for larger older generations)
3. Design of the government sector (more resources toward health care/medical spending etc).
4. Patterns of consumer spending (fewer "young" consumers)
5. Population age structure is important; demand for assets for retirement savings ("young" generations are savers)
6. Migration patterns can be important for wage determination (for example, migration from rural to urban areas tends to put downward pressure on wages)
Eoin Treacy's view It
is an undeniable fact that as people age their priorities change. When taken
on aggregate, significant bulges in the population can have a marked effect
on growth prospects and investment returns at different periods. We tend to
focus on the investment potential created by millions of young people moving
from rural to urban areas in Asia and in the process climbing from a subsistence
existence to a semblance of the middle classes.
Today
I thought I would approach demographics from a different perspective. People
are living longer than ever before but this delays rather than offsets their
inevitable demise. The proportion of the population over the age of 65 is set
to continue to rise as the baby boomer generation ages and eventually passes
away. This would suggest that demand for life enhancing medical treatment such
as medicine and residential care should experience growth.
Funeral
services should also benefit from the aging of many populations. Dignity
Plc is listed in the UK and has a market cap of £434 million. It is
somewhat overextended relative to the 200-day MA as it approaches an area of
potential resistance near the 2008 peak at 800p. However, a sustained break
of the progression of higher major reaction lows, currently near 700p would
be required to question the consistency of the medium-term uptrend.
US listed
Hillenbrand
has a market cap of $1.42 billion and has been trending steadily higher since
late 2008. A sustained move below $21 would be required to question medium-term
upside potential. Stewart
Enterprise has a market cap of $659 million and is in a process of mean
reversion following an impressive to its April peak. An upward dynamic would
help to suggest that demand is returning as it approaches the 200-day MA.