Dividend yields greater than Estimated P/Es
Eoin Treacy's view
Over the last two days I've highlighted a number of shares with P/E ratios in
single digits and competitive yields. Every corrective phase, leads to some
valuation contraction as at least part of the enthusiasm that led to the overextension
is unwound.
As behavioural technical analysts, once an instrument has pulled back to the
region of the trend mean during an uptrend, we look for evidence that support
is being found. This demonstrates that demand is beginning to return to dominance.
Without that reality check, we have nothing other than conjecture to tell us
where value lies.
After all, a definition of a stock that is down 90% is one that was down 80%
and halved. There is nothing worse than buying a share with a low P/E only to
see the earnings collapse and the P/E soar. Therefore we always employ the reality
of the price action before making investment decisions.
In order to create a list of potentially
interesting shares, I performed a search on Bloomberg for companies where
the dividend yield is higher than the estimated P/E and which have a market
cap of greater than $1 billion.
Mortgage REITs, investment companies and private equity companies predominate.
In the US, Pitney Bowes is a former constituent
of the S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats Index. The company has an estimated
P/E of 7.59 and a dividend yield of 10.41%. The share hit a low in January near
$10 and has held a progression of higher reaction lows since. It found support
this week in the region of the 200-day MA and a sustained move below $14 would
be required to question medium-term scope for additional upside.
RR Donnelly has an estimated P/E of 7.26
and dividend yield of 9.14%. The share has pulled back over the last few weeks
to test the region of the 200-day MA and rallied impressively today. A sustained
move below $11 would now be required to question medium-term scope for additional
upside.
Hong Kong listed Emperor International
has an historic P/E of 1.42, estimated P/E of 3.91 and yields 4.91%. The company
is predominately involved in real estate, luxury hotels and also has some exposure
to Macau's casino sector. The share pulled back from its February high near
HK$2.50 to test the region of the 200-day MA and a sustained move below HK$1.90
would be required to question potential for additional upside.