DM: Mortgage originators have been decimated. They’re losing both purchase mortgages, down 30%, and they’ve lost 100% of refi [refinancing]. We’re going to see a consolidation in mortgage origination that will be pretty transformational. Within the single-family rental space, you’re going to see the smaller people fall by the wayside, because it’s so hard to access houses the way they’ve done, and the relatively low level of unemployment is going to put a lot of pressure on their ability to service the assets. I expect to see more consolidation in single-family rentals, with the big guys getting bigger over time. Title insurance companies are struggling right now. Other vendors to that space are struggling. I think you’re just going to see—across the whole homeowner­ship ecosystem—massive consolidation. 

Eoin Treacy's view

Banks are firing mortgage personnel at an accelerating pace. That is a sure sign business has dried up and they are not willing to carry dead weight. The longer rates stay high for, the more likely a deep recession becomes. Lending standards did not ease very much ahead of the pandemic surge so there are fewer stressed owners but some softness can be expected.


Real Estate agents lost all their pandemic gains over the last couple of years. Support building could be lengthy and countertrend bounces can easily give the illusion of a new trend during this phase.

At the other end of the spectrum building materials and home builder stocks have held up quite well. The outstanding question is how long that persists when home prices are falling? Home Depot continues to pause above the 200-day MA and needs to continue to hold the $300 level if recovery is to be given the benefit of the doubt.

The homebuilders ETF surged last week to clearly break the sequence of lower rally highs. Some consolidation of that move is now underway but the bigger question is whether the breakout can be sustained.