Dow Caps Longest Rally Since 1996 as Retail Sales Gain
While the S&P 500 remains less than one percent below its record, the Russell 2000 Index (RTY) of smaller companies advanced 0.4 percent to an all-time high of 943.90 and the Dow Jones Transportation Average climbed 1.6 percent to a record 6,232.59 today. The Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index also topped its previous high, adding 0.5 percent to 1,171.95.
The S&P 500 is valued at 15.4 times reported earnings, a 22-month high, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That's still 7.2 percent below an average of 16.6 over the last decade. The Dow is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.1, the highest level in almost two years and 11 percent below its 10- year average of 15.8.
David Fuller's view I cannot recall any other four-year bull
market which has so frequently been called a 'bear market rally' by Wall Street's
pundits. US equities are not cheap today, but there are plenty of times when
they have been more expensive, as Bloomberg points out in the paragraph above.
The absence of high fives on Wall Street and the infrequent popping of champagne
corks in its watering holes also suggest that this is no bubble, despite all
the quantitative easing (QE).
The US
stock market is registering a short-term overbought reading but there are plenty
of bullish chart patterns if you have been monitoring Eoin's many reviews, particularly
among the Dividend Aristocrats and Autonomies, most of which are multinational
companies.
To
state the obvious, bear market rallies do not extend to new all time highs,
so the indices mentioned above are worth a look. I have selected 20-year monthly
charts for perspective: S&P 500,
Russell 2000, DJ
Transports, AMEX MS Cyclical
and the Dow Jones Industrials.
Four
of these five Indices are at new all-time highs, and the S&P 500 is within
striking distance. Yes, they are temporarily overbought, to repeat this point,
so we should expect a reaction and consolidation before long. However, I would
continue to give these overall upward trends the benefit of the doubt, at least
until their progressions of higher reaction lows are broken and prices fall
back beneath their MAs, which also turn downwards.