"When my information changes, I alter my conclusions. What do you do, sir?" - Keynes

Making geopolitical predictions is tough, which is why I left my Iran strike predictions open ended into Q4 depending on how the US elections played out as this was a key determinant given Israel was more likely to have support for a strike from a Romney (or any of his main competitors at the time) than Obama, adjusting their calculations as their ability to inflict damage on Iranian operations receded under a mountain.

Following the speeches by Presidents Netanyahu, Ahmedinejad and Obama I now think an attack is unlikely (< 5%) as President Netanyahu (very visually) adjusted his red line to only slightly before a nuclear weapon development and stated that Iran will not have enriched sufficient Uranium until next summer "at most". This is not necessarily accurate (especially given prior predictions), but is a public marker that makes action prior to the New Year unlikely.

David Fuller's view Emad Mostaque's view is also supported by the recent action of the Israel's stock market (weekly & daily).

Here is a video of Bebe Netanyahu at the United Nations this week, drawing a bomb depicting Iran's nuclear development to date.