Email of day (2)
"Hope this email finds you both well. Does the collective have a library of Forestry/Timber REIT? Would most appreciate your comment on this sector?”
Eoin Treacy's view Thank
you for this question and for your participation at the New York venue for the
Chart Seminar in April. I last reviewed timber companies on July
21st 2011, in the aftermath of the Sino-Forest bankruptcy when a number
of timber companies suffered contagion regardless of the fact that they had
no exposure to Chinese forestry.
Over
the course of the last year lumber has
been ranging in a volatile fashion, albeit with a mild upward bias. It has returned
to test the region of the March lows where it has found at least temporary support.
A sustained move below $250 would now be required to question potential for
a further unwind of the short-term oversold condition.
Rayonier
(3.68%) pulled back gently from its new high to test the region of the 200-day
MA where it appears to have found at least short-term support. A sustained move
below $41.40 would be required to question potential for some additional higher
to lateral ranging.
Weyerhaeuser
(2.96%) has held a progression of higher major reaction lows since early 2009
and has also recently found at least short-term support in the region of its
200-day MA. It will need to hold above the recent low near $18.60 if the benefit
of the doubt is to continue to be given to potential for higher to lateral ranging.
Plum
Creek (4.45%) has been largely rangebound since early 2010 and found support
three weeks ago in the region of the lower boundary.
Potlatch
(4.88%) has been trending lower over the last year and will need to sustain
a move above $32 to break the progression of lower rally highs and suggest a
return to demand dominance beyond the short-term.