Email of the day (1)
Comment of the Day

September 01 2010

Commentary by David Fuller

Email of the day (1)

On long-term currency bets
"Gents, thanks for your service. It's one I really enjoy.

"I do have a question that I have pondered with no success. You have called for long term bull markets in several areas i.e. Precious Metals.

"What is your stance on what 2-3 currencies make up good long term holdings? I believe its exceedingly important."

David Fuller's view Thanks for the feedback and a good question.

I will start my answer by repeating that in this environment of intense competition due to globalisation, no country wants a strong currency. However some countries need a weak currency more than others.

This brings us back to gold which we continue to regard as hard money and therefore a good store of wealth, at least until short-term interest rates rise sufficiently around the globe to compensate for the relentless printing of fiat currencies.

As for fiat currency, what are perhaps the best of a bad lot?

Basically, currencies will fluctuate so it may be better to play the medium-term chart trends. Governments in countries with higher interest rates are generally less averse to some currency appreciation. Countries with sound economic governance, such as Singapore and Switzerland, will have stronger currencies when sovereign debt is a general concern, as we have seen over the last two years. Countries with stronger GDP often have relatively firm currencies.

My long-term forecast is that the Chinese renminbi will eventually become the world's reserve currency, but I do not expect to see this in my lifetime and it is not a convertible currency today. I have not been a fan of the US dollar over the last decade but it has fallen a long way against many other currencies. Unlike some forecasters, I do not assume that it will be printed to the point of hyperinflation.

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