Email of the day (1)
Comment of the Day

September 30 2010

Commentary by David Fuller

Email of the day (1)

On when to sell a successful investment position
"As a relative newcomer to investing, may I offer congratulations to you and Eoin on your service; the daily mix of wisdom, enthusiasm and integrity really shines through.

"My question: regarding long term equity investment positions such as India, Thailand and other ASEANS, what signals would lead you to sell your major portfolio positions (and take the very substantial profits from the last few weeks) rather than stay long for the 'fourth quarter' accepting some probable short-term losses as inevitable reversions towards the mean - what might be the trigger for you to sell a 'secular Fullermoney theme'? You touched on the dilemma in the audio a few days ago, but I wondered what may actually push you to take profits from equity funds - even if you are in for the long haul?"

David Fuller's view Thank you for these generous remarks. Eoin and I love what we do, not least interaction with motivated subscribers who share our interest in global markets. Thanks also for an important question certain to be of interest to many subscribers.

Here is the guidance which I have mentioned on occasion:

1. If you are going to sell a successful long-term investment, it is better to do so when it is performing to the point of accelerating above its medium-term trend mean, represented by the 200-day moving average.

2. The best time to repurchase or add to these positions is following either a pullback to the rising MA mean, or on a breakout following a ranging consolidation near the mean.

The email above is well timed because leading ASEAN markets have accelerated well above their trend means. I thought about taking some profits in my third largest position - the Aberdeen New Thai Investment Trust (ABD LN). However I decided against it because it was still trading at a substantial discount to NAV of 18% and the advance had been supported by extensive underlying trading, as one can see more clearly on the chart for Thailand. Also, Thailand had not shown any classic trend-ending signals from The Chart Seminar, although the acceleration does indicate that it is approaching a peak of at least short-term significance.

Here is the tactical dilemma with which veteran subscribers will be familiar. Should one commence scale-up lightening in a core long-term equity position when it clearly accelerates above its trend mean as some have recently? Arguably, yes. However over the last decade there have been a number of corrections and many smaller reactions in top performing Fullermoney themes, but only one blow-out which occurred in 2008.

The risk is that one either sells too soon or too late in the correction. Even if one times the exit perfectly, the next challenge is to either buy back at a better level, or to buy something better. In answer to the email question above, I will remain reluctant to sell my best performing progressing market equity positions, unless they are accelerating in clear bubble fashion, confirmed by historically high valuations. This is not the case today.

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