Email of the day (1)
"Looking at the weekly chart for the India Sensex, I note that the recent upward break has been on very low volume (in fact, volume over the last year or so has generally been low compared with 2008 levels). You never talk much about volume when you interpret the charts, but I'd like to know if you think it is relevant in this case (i.e. what does the low volume say about the strength / sustainability of the price action?). I'm interested because I want to establish a position in Indian equities, but am not convinced that now is the right time, especially given the relatively high valuation based on PE. Your service has certainly got me thinking more! - Thanks."
Eoin Treacy's view Thank
you for this interesting question. I rarely look at volume data on indices because
it is too easy to fudge, often unreliable and exchanges will occasionally change
the way they measure trades so that it makes a mockery of volume charts. I'm
afraid I do not know why volume has trailed off so markedly over the last few
years. Looking at this 10-year
chart it is now at levels that predominated before 2005. I wonder if it
has anything to do with currency controls introduced in 2007 but would welcome
some clarity from subscribers if they can shed some light on this issue.
As you
will see from the above report India is one of the more expensive markets both
regionally and globally on a P/E basis. However as David has pointed out, not
least in the Subscriber's Audio, it might be more instructive to compare the
impact high P/Es have had on the stock market's performance historically.
This
overlay
chart of the Sensex Index with its P/E indicates that major stock market peaks
have coincided with P/Es above 22. I have doubts about whether the plunge in
P/Es in March is reliable but at today's level while the market is trading rich,
it is not in what one might categorise as danger territory from the perspective
of P/Es.
As you
know we will always rely most heavily on the price action. The Sensex
rallied impressively from the 19,000 area and has slowed down somewhat as it
approaches the 2008 peak near 21,000. I sold my long position on the first small
pullback and would welcome a reaction which might offer a chance to get back
in at a more favourable level. I rate the potential that we might see such an
eventuality at 50/50 because on the one hand the market is a bit overextended
in the short-term term but it has done nothing to indicate a surplus of supply
above the market and other Asian indices are breaking to new highs.