Email of the day (1)
Comment of the Day

November 01 2010

Commentary by David Fuller

Email of the day (1)

On shorting bonds:
"David, that was a vintage audio on Friday, truly excellent. Thanks once again to you and Eoin for an incredible service. We are so very fortunate.

"One of many points you covered was the likelihood that a bear market in government bonds of 'regressing' nations may soon be upon us. Interestingly, over this weekend Bill Gross of PIMCO, the leading bond company, put out an article in which he fully agrees with you. Here are some key words:

"The Fed wants to buy, so come on, Ben Bernanke, show us your best and perhaps last moves on Wednesday next. You are doing what you have to do and it may or may not work. But either way it will likely signify the end of a great 30-year bull market in bonds and the necessity for bond managers and, yes, equity managers to adjust to a new environment."

"So, a new potentially remunerative investment theme may emerge soon, namely the shorting of government bonds. Can you help us to identify possible vehicles so we are prepared to capitalise on this opportunity once the trend is firmly in place. I am particularly interested in short ETFs or other vehicles suitable for an investor based in the UK, and other subscribers would surely be interested in vehicles applicable in their own home currencies.

David Fuller's view Thanks for your kind words.

As a 'rule of thumb', I prefer plain vanilla ETFs, which I would define as long-only trackers. When it comes to the 'exotic' versions, including structured products, leveraged or short ETFs, fees and rollover costs mount. So does 'slippage', which is a euphemism for an instrument which does not successfully track the market in question.

There are some short Treasury trackers in the USA, which are listed in the Library, but I am very unlikely to use any of them. Since you live in the UK, why not learn about spread-bets? You can dabble on a very small basis during the learning curve, without risking much capital. A big advantage is that there is no CGT for UK taxpayers.

Thanks for the PIMCO report: Run Turkey, Run.

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