Email of the day (1)
Comment of the Day

November 04 2010

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Email of the day (1)

on Ireland:
"Superb article on Ireland. Very accurate. Greed , incompetence and nonexistent risk management procedures were reasons for the banking crisis. Arrogance and individuals who knew it all did not help the situation. Humility was lacking in the investment community. I could write a thesis on Ireland's troubles since 2007. Academics and entrepreneurs need to run our country. Dermot Desmond would be my choice."

Eoin Treacy's view Thank you for your kind words. "Governance is everything" has been a mantra at Fullermoney for a long time and is no less true in the case of Ireland than it is for other countries. In my opinion, what sector a country's leadership comes from is less important than how the job gets done. Singapore offers a clear demonstration of how sound economic governance can turn a relative backwater into a globally competitive advanced economy in a comparatively short time. Ireland or any other country does not have to reinvent the wheel in terms of governance. A sense of fiscal responsibility, focus on productivity growth, cost competitiveness and on fostering the conditions necessary to create private sector jobs is far more important.

Ireland is not the only country with a history of boom and bust. Following recessions, prudent fiscal policies tend to be adopted which begin to yield a higher growth rate as recovery takes hold. The electorate observe the economic improvement but often become impatient with the pace at which their standard of living is improving and tend to vote for populist high spenders. This demanding of bribes in the form of poorly funded social programs and an increased government payroll usually results in a party staying in power well past its sell by date. The catalyst for reform is often the next recession, when the excesses are finally paid for, the least well-off suffer the most hardship and the cycle begins once more.

Germany had such a traumatic experience of hyperinflation in the early 20th century that the population has learned to hold fiscal rectitude in the highest regard. The electorate have consistently voted for those seeking to control inflation with the result that cost pressures have been relatively muted and the country has avoided a number of bubbles. It hasn't been the most exciting place during major bull markets in the past because of this conservatism but neither has it suffered the same busts as the USA, UK or Ireland.

It remains highly questionable as to whether peripheral Eurozone countries can adopt German fiscal policies having already adopted its currency. This uncertainty continues to pressure Eurozone sovereign spreads. It may take years to conclusively answer this question, and in the meantime spreads have yet to find an equilibrium.

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