Email of the day (1)
Comment of the Day

November 05 2010

Commentary by David Fuller

Email of the day (1)

On shorting government bonds:
"Extract from Tuesdays audio: I understand fullermoney believes longdated govt bond prices will reduce due to oversupply and therefore a short trade looks good

"Please explain in practice how I can do this trade and what instrument/ticker is best

"Assume it is a spread bet trade"

David Fuller's view If you are used to trading futures, then spread-betting is a very good vehicle in the UK because it is free of capital gains. However that is only an advantage if one makes gains, as spread-bet losses cannot be offset against capital gains. Most people who spread-bet end up losing money.

If you are not comfortable trading futures (please don't view it as a virility test) then I would advise most people of middle age or more against it. The reason is simple: trading is much more difficult than investing because of the timing and money control skills required. Consequently, the learning curve is steep. Trading is also more stressful and takes a lot more time, effort and monitoring. The payoff is leveraged gains for those who succeed.

Successful traders usually start young, and they trade because they have no money. They need to have plenty of resilience, so that they can keep on getting back up after being knocked down. This can feel very masochistic. For every successful trader, there are plenty of early dropouts and eventual burnouts. Trading stress can literally kill people.

Rich people do not need to trade futures, although some do because they can, and they enjoy it. There are also some bored rich people who do not care if they lose money, although they are more likely to visit casinos.

If you wish to trade and have a spread-bet account, the instrument I use on IG Index is found in my account by clicking on 'Finder', then 'Bonds and Moneymarket', then 'US', then 'All' and the specific instrument is listed as 'Treasury Bond Decimalised' and the contract currently available is for December.

If you do not trade futures and wish to short US long-dated government bonds, there are some leveraged vehicles such as ProShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Yr Treasury (TBT US). I found it by searching the Chart Library under 'Ultra', which lists quite a few leveraged ETFs. Here is the Bloomberg Description page for TBT. You will find other leveraged ETFs for shorting US Treasuries, and everything else, under 'Ultra'. You can also find some unleveraged Treasury ETFs by searching under 'Treasury'. Remember, it is always advisable to conduct your own due diligence.

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