Email of the day (1)
"The US 10 yr yield minus TIPS yield is commonly used as a measure of inflationary expectations. However, TIPS is not listed as a choice in the 'relative' dropdown in the Charting tab. Could you please add it, or alternatively create a difference chart as a fixed option for us to select? Thanks for the good work, always."
Eoin Treacy's view Thank you for this suggestion but 30yr, 10yr and 5yr TIPS spreads can be found in the Spreads & Overlays section of the Chart Library. The easiest way to find them would be to use 'TIPS' as the parameter in a keyword search. I last commented on this spread in Comment of the Day on May 21st.
The spread bottomed in late 2008 as increasingly bearish forecasts of financial Armageddon reached their nadir. TIPS were subsequently one of the better performing debt instruments as this pessimism gave way to bargain hunting. The spread lost momentum from January and pulled back sharply before finding support in August. It has since bounced to retest the lower side of the overhead top formation and a true inflation scare remains required to justify a sustained move above 250 basis points.
Despite official claims to the contrary inflationary pressures are mounting in the commodity complex. With so many systemically important commodities hitting multi-decade highs, it is now only a question of when rather than if these price hikes begin to filter into inflationary measures.