Email of the day (1)
Comment of the Day

November 29 2010

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Email of the day (1)

on the EUR/CHF cross rate:
"I have heard recently of movement of cash from Euro to Swiss francs driven by fears in relation to the former currency.
Can you comment on this and also comment on where you see the Euro/CHF over the next 12 months. Enjoying the service for the past 3 years. It has been a rollercoaster."

Eoin Treacy's view Thank you for this question which may be of interest to other subscribers. The Swiss Franc has had its safe haven status reinvigorated as Eurozone sovereign debt troubles have tested investor patience with the Euro.

The Euro remains in a relatively consistent downtrend against the Franc, with a succession of lower rally highs. The Swiss are not altogether thrilled with the pace of the Franc's advance but the two weekly key reversals just below €1.40 (August and November) signal continued Euro selling pressure in that region, The cross rate has already had a large decline over the last 3 years but the downside can continue to be given the benefit of the doubt in the absence of a sustained move above €1.40. A move above that area would be required to signal a return to medium-term Euro dominance. Meanwhile, overextensions relative to the 200-day MA, particularly following downward accelerations, are likely to signal lows of at least short-term significance.

Gold in Euro also remains in a consistent uptrend and hit a new high today. A sustained move below €900 would be required to question medium-term demand dominance.

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