Email of the day (1)
"In view of your recent comments on the catch up in energy prices, in general regional terms which stock markets do you think will benefit most? I have added exposure to Qatar, for example. More particularly, are we going to see a further advance by the Russian market (which on simple P/E metrics is lowly valued)?
"Even after 18 months I still tune in to your comments daily. Thank you both."
Eoin Treacy's view Thank 
 you for these questions which I'm sure will be of interest to other subscribers. 
 I remember when you joined the Collective and it feels like only the twinkling 
 of an eye has passed. The markets offer the opportunity for lifelong learning 
 and I hope you will be with us for years to come. Might I ask how you are getting 
 exposure to the Qatari market? As far as I know while Qatar is an oil producer, 
 it is more leveraged to natural gas and LNG.
Oil 
 hit $90 this week and has pulled back slightly from that level over the last 
 couple of days. Following such a swift rally to reach a new recovery high, a 
 pause in this area is not unexpected. A sustained move below $80 would be required 
 to delay potential for additional upside. On Monday, I profiled a number of 
 companies that should benefit from higher oil prices and I believe it is an 
 open question whether one would gain more access to the sector by buying a country 
 fund, energy fund or by cherry picking among some of the more promising equities. 
 
Middle 
 Eastern markets performed extraordinarily well from 2003 through 2006 as higher 
 oil prices coincided with an opening up of the region's financial markets. However, 
 most regional markets pulled back sharply in 2006 and have been slow to recover. 
 An important trait of Middle Eastern markets is that the bullish case is based 
 more on the emergence of the middle class rather than being a straight energy 
 play. This is because most of the oil and gas companies in the region are either 
 state owned or listed elsewhere. The Qatari DSM 
 Index is performing more or less in line with the oil price and the medium-term 
 upside can continue to be given the benefit of the doubt provided it holds above 
 7800. 
Russia 
 continues to trade at an appealing P/E but this attraction is tempered by the 
 country's poor record of respect for minority shareholder rights. Nevertheless, 
 it should continue to attract investor interest for as long as oil is advancing. 
 The RTSI Index spent much of the last year ranging and hit a new recovery high 
 this week. A sustained move below 1500 would be required to question medium-term 
 upside potential. Gazprom, listed on the 
 London International Exchange, found support at the lower side of the 18-month 
 range from May and has sustained a progression of higher reaction lows since. 
 This would need to be taken out to question scope for continued higher to lateral 
 ranging. 
Norway 
 and Canada, both of which have relatively 
 large energy weightings, found support above their respective April highs and 
 have since improved on that performance. Sustained moves below their 200-day 
 MAs would be required to question medium-term upside potential. Both the 
 iShares DJ Energy Sector ETF listed in the USA and the Blackrock 
 World Energy Fund listed in Luxembourg have relatively similar chart patterns 
 to these country indices. 
The Investec 
 Global Energy Accumulation Fund listed in the UK and in Pounds has a 4.5% 
 initial fee and 1.5% management fee. It has been ranging in relatively close 
 proximity to its 2008 peak and hit a new recovery high last week. A sustained 
 move below the 200-day MA would be required to question medium-term upside potential. 
 
The CIBC 
 Energy Fund listed in Canada and in Canadian Dollars has a 2% management 
 fee and 2% early withdrawal fee. It broke above its April peak in October and 
 is now testing the 2008 peak. While currently somewhat overextended relative 
 to the 200-day MA a sustained move below it would be required to question medium-term 
 upside potential. 
The Powershares 
 Dynamic Energy Exploration and Production ETF and the SPDR 
 Energy Fund have relatively similar patterns to Schlumberger, Halliburton 
 and National Oilwell Varco, all of which were mentioned in Comment of the Day 
 on Monday. 
The Market 
 Vectors Nuclear Energy ETF has just broken out of an 18-month first step 
 above the late 2008/early 2009 base. 
The Kayne 
 Anderson Energy Total Return Fund has a dividend yield of over 6% and currently 
 trades at a premium to NAV of 4.5%. It invests primarily in pipeline MLPs, a 
 number of which were profiled on Monday. It has rallied impressively over the 
 last few months and become somewhat overextended as it approaches the 2007 peak. 
 However, a sustained move below the 200-day MA, currently near $25, would be 
 required to question medium-term upside potential.
 
					
				
		
		 
					