Email of the day (1)
"In view of your recent comments on the catch up in energy prices, in general regional terms which stock markets do you think will benefit most? I have added exposure to Qatar, for example. More particularly, are we going to see a further advance by the Russian market (which on simple P/E metrics is lowly valued)?
"Even after 18 months I still tune in to your comments daily. Thank you both."
Eoin Treacy's view Thank
you for these questions which I'm sure will be of interest to other subscribers.
I remember when you joined the Collective and it feels like only the twinkling
of an eye has passed. The markets offer the opportunity for lifelong learning
and I hope you will be with us for years to come. Might I ask how you are getting
exposure to the Qatari market? As far as I know while Qatar is an oil producer,
it is more leveraged to natural gas and LNG.
Oil
hit $90 this week and has pulled back slightly from that level over the last
couple of days. Following such a swift rally to reach a new recovery high, a
pause in this area is not unexpected. A sustained move below $80 would be required
to delay potential for additional upside. On Monday, I profiled a number of
companies that should benefit from higher oil prices and I believe it is an
open question whether one would gain more access to the sector by buying a country
fund, energy fund or by cherry picking among some of the more promising equities.
Middle
Eastern markets performed extraordinarily well from 2003 through 2006 as higher
oil prices coincided with an opening up of the region's financial markets. However,
most regional markets pulled back sharply in 2006 and have been slow to recover.
An important trait of Middle Eastern markets is that the bullish case is based
more on the emergence of the middle class rather than being a straight energy
play. This is because most of the oil and gas companies in the region are either
state owned or listed elsewhere. The Qatari DSM
Index is performing more or less in line with the oil price and the medium-term
upside can continue to be given the benefit of the doubt provided it holds above
7800.
Russia
continues to trade at an appealing P/E but this attraction is tempered by the
country's poor record of respect for minority shareholder rights. Nevertheless,
it should continue to attract investor interest for as long as oil is advancing.
The RTSI Index spent much of the last year ranging and hit a new recovery high
this week. A sustained move below 1500 would be required to question medium-term
upside potential. Gazprom, listed on the
London International Exchange, found support at the lower side of the 18-month
range from May and has sustained a progression of higher reaction lows since.
This would need to be taken out to question scope for continued higher to lateral
ranging.
Norway
and Canada, both of which have relatively
large energy weightings, found support above their respective April highs and
have since improved on that performance. Sustained moves below their 200-day
MAs would be required to question medium-term upside potential. Both the
iShares DJ Energy Sector ETF listed in the USA and the Blackrock
World Energy Fund listed in Luxembourg have relatively similar chart patterns
to these country indices.
The Investec
Global Energy Accumulation Fund listed in the UK and in Pounds has a 4.5%
initial fee and 1.5% management fee. It has been ranging in relatively close
proximity to its 2008 peak and hit a new recovery high last week. A sustained
move below the 200-day MA would be required to question medium-term upside potential.
The CIBC
Energy Fund listed in Canada and in Canadian Dollars has a 2% management
fee and 2% early withdrawal fee. It broke above its April peak in October and
is now testing the 2008 peak. While currently somewhat overextended relative
to the 200-day MA a sustained move below it would be required to question medium-term
upside potential.
The Powershares
Dynamic Energy Exploration and Production ETF and the SPDR
Energy Fund have relatively similar patterns to Schlumberger, Halliburton
and National Oilwell Varco, all of which were mentioned in Comment of the Day
on Monday.
The Market
Vectors Nuclear Energy ETF has just broken out of an 18-month first step
above the late 2008/early 2009 base.
The Kayne
Anderson Energy Total Return Fund has a dividend yield of over 6% and currently
trades at a premium to NAV of 4.5%. It invests primarily in pipeline MLPs, a
number of which were profiled on Monday. It has rallied impressively over the
last few months and become somewhat overextended as it approaches the 2007 peak.
However, a sustained move below the 200-day MA, currently near $25, would be
required to question medium-term upside potential.