Email of the day (1)
Comment of the Day

December 08 2010

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Email of the day (1)

on markets that will benefit from higher oil prices:
"In view of your recent comments on the catch up in energy prices, in general regional terms which stock markets do you think will benefit most? I have added exposure to Qatar, for example. More particularly, are we going to see a further advance by the Russian market (which on simple P/E metrics is lowly valued)?

"Even after 18 months I still tune in to your comments daily. Thank you both."

Eoin Treacy's view Thank you for these questions which I'm sure will be of interest to other subscribers. I remember when you joined the Collective and it feels like only the twinkling of an eye has passed. The markets offer the opportunity for lifelong learning and I hope you will be with us for years to come. Might I ask how you are getting exposure to the Qatari market? As far as I know while Qatar is an oil producer, it is more leveraged to natural gas and LNG.

Oil hit $90 this week and has pulled back slightly from that level over the last couple of days. Following such a swift rally to reach a new recovery high, a pause in this area is not unexpected. A sustained move below $80 would be required to delay potential for additional upside. On Monday, I profiled a number of companies that should benefit from higher oil prices and I believe it is an open question whether one would gain more access to the sector by buying a country fund, energy fund or by cherry picking among some of the more promising equities.

Middle Eastern markets performed extraordinarily well from 2003 through 2006 as higher oil prices coincided with an opening up of the region's financial markets. However, most regional markets pulled back sharply in 2006 and have been slow to recover. An important trait of Middle Eastern markets is that the bullish case is based more on the emergence of the middle class rather than being a straight energy play. This is because most of the oil and gas companies in the region are either state owned or listed elsewhere. The Qatari DSM Index is performing more or less in line with the oil price and the medium-term upside can continue to be given the benefit of the doubt provided it holds above 7800.

Russia continues to trade at an appealing P/E but this attraction is tempered by the country's poor record of respect for minority shareholder rights. Nevertheless, it should continue to attract investor interest for as long as oil is advancing. The RTSI Index spent much of the last year ranging and hit a new recovery high this week. A sustained move below 1500 would be required to question medium-term upside potential. Gazprom, listed on the London International Exchange, found support at the lower side of the 18-month range from May and has sustained a progression of higher reaction lows since. This would need to be taken out to question scope for continued higher to lateral ranging.

Norway and Canada, both of which have relatively large energy weightings, found support above their respective April highs and have since improved on that performance. Sustained moves below their 200-day MAs would be required to question medium-term upside potential. Both the iShares DJ Energy Sector ETF listed in the USA and the Blackrock World Energy Fund listed in Luxembourg have relatively similar chart patterns to these country indices.

The Investec Global Energy Accumulation Fund listed in the UK and in Pounds has a 4.5% initial fee and 1.5% management fee. It has been ranging in relatively close proximity to its 2008 peak and hit a new recovery high last week. A sustained move below the 200-day MA would be required to question medium-term upside potential.

The CIBC Energy Fund listed in Canada and in Canadian Dollars has a 2% management fee and 2% early withdrawal fee. It broke above its April peak in October and is now testing the 2008 peak. While currently somewhat overextended relative to the 200-day MA a sustained move below it would be required to question medium-term upside potential.

The Powershares Dynamic Energy Exploration and Production ETF and the SPDR Energy Fund have relatively similar patterns to Schlumberger, Halliburton and National Oilwell Varco, all of which were mentioned in Comment of the Day on Monday.

The Market Vectors Nuclear Energy ETF has just broken out of an 18-month first step above the late 2008/early 2009 base.

The Kayne Anderson Energy Total Return Fund has a dividend yield of over 6% and currently trades at a premium to NAV of 4.5%. It invests primarily in pipeline MLPs, a number of which were profiled on Monday. It has rallied impressively over the last few months and become somewhat overextended as it approaches the 2007 peak. However, a sustained move below the 200-day MA, currently near $25, would be required to question medium-term upside potential.

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