Email of the day (1)
Comment of the Day

December 09 2010

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Email of the day (1)

on Citigroup:
"Since the US government has sold their shares of Citibank, and the market went up drastically Tuesday; do you think Citibank has reasonable upside potential? What would make you consider buying Citibank?"

Eoin Treacy's view We do not usually answer questions on specific equities unless they are of general interest. However, Citigroup is a useful example of a crash followed by a Type-3 bottom as taught at The Chart Seminar.

The size of the crash makes how the share has traded since look like a flat line when viewed on an arithmetic scale, so let us restrict ourselves to what has happened in the last two years. Citigroup bottomed in March 2009 at $1 and has sustained a progression of higher major reaction lows since. These occurred in July 2009, January 2010 and August 2010. It has encountered resistance near $5 on at least two occasions and this can be seen as delineating the upper side of the base. The share is a recovery candidate and a sustained move below $3.50 would be required to question scope for further higher to lateral ranging.

Citigroup is not a leader in the financial sector, but assuming banks will recover at some point, it is will probably perform in line with its peers.

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