"Aluminum has lagged other industrial metals...what is your thinking on investing in AA for example as a catch-up play?"

Eoin Treacy's view The global economy continues to recover, led by some of the highest growth markets for industrial commodity consumption. This has helped to revive interest in the sector since 2009. The financial crisis cut off access to credit for new ventures, which delayed new supply being brought on line. The tightest markets have understandably outperformed as a result. Tin was the first industrial metal to break above its 2008 peak and copper did the same this month. The very fact that other industrial metals are lagging indicates that at least for now the same shortage of near-term supply is not evident in these markets.

In order of performance, aluminium and lead are both testing their October and January highs. $2500 has proved to be a psychological barrier for both of these commodities. Zinc is rallying towards the upper side of a yearlong range. Nickel, while lagging, has found support in the region of the 200-day MA on a number of occasions and remains in a gradual uptrend. Breaks to new recovery highs are required to reassert medium-term uptrends and to indicate demand is regaining dominance beyond the near term for all of these metals. On a commonality basis, given the outperformance of tin and copper there is no reason to suspect that the rest of the industrial metal complex will not also continue to advance.

Alcoa crashed dramatically in 2008 and remains within a base formation. It is currently rallying towards the upper side and a sustained move below $13 would be required to question medium-term upside potential.

Aluminum Corp shares Alcoa's base formation but has lagged somewhat of late. It is currently testing the HK$7 level and needs a hold above HK$7.25 to break the short-term downtrend.

Rio Tinto derived approximately 28% of its income from aluminium in 2009. It broke above its April high in October, consolidated above 4000p and would need to sustain a move below 4250p to question medium-term scope for additional upside.

Hindalco Industries retested its 2007 peak in April. It is now testing the lower side of a yearlong range and the 200-day MA. It needs to hold above INR 130 to retain the medium-term bullish outlook.