Email of the day (1)
Comment of the Day

January 07 2010

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Email of the day (1)

on Volatility for GBP/USD
"I am a subscriber; is there any way I can get a historic chart of the cable rate (GBP/$) show its Volatility the past year? I need to measure how volatile the cable rate has been in the same way as the VIX shows volatility for the stock Indexes?

"There are plenty of FX cross rates I just can't find their volatility?"

Eoin Treacy's view Thank you for this suggestion. We have not previously had volatility indices for currencies but I added an index of 1-month volatilities for the Cable rate to the Volatility Indices section of the Chart Library this morning.

Volatility indices such as the VIX, VStoxx, crude oil and currencies such as GBP/USD share a similar pattern. They all hit important historic peaks in Q42008 and have trended steadily lower since. The VIX has now retraced the entire panicky advance from late August to the October 2008 peak. A sustained move above 30 would be required to signal anything more than normal hedging activity is underway.

Cable volatility also peaked in October 2008 and has retraced the majority of its advance. It is currently testing the upper side of the lengthy base and a sustained move below 10 would indicate a return to what were considered normal levels prior to the credit crisis.

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