Email of the day (1)
"David, I was curious to get your thoughts on the impact of Japan's nuclear plant problems to uranium stocks. Do you think this significantly changes the markets perspective on nuclear energy as reminders of Chernobyl begin to appear in the news? I suspect the demand from China will continue the long term bull-run and this is merely a short term correction. I would be interested to hear your thoughts."
David Fuller's view My thanks to subscribers for several emails
on this subject.
I
trust that my comments above have partially answered your queries. If this setback
in shares such as Cameco and Denison
Mines, plus the investment trust Geiger
Counter, all of which are in my long-term investment portfolio, had occurred
for any reason other than a nuclear accident on the scale of what we see with
Fukushima, I would probably be adding to my positions without hesitation. However,
if those reactors are not cooled without further incident, it could set back
the nuclear industry for several years.
Meanwhile,
the chart action has gone some way towards discounting a worst-case scenario,
in my view. Consequently the sell-off looks climactic, as I also mentioned above.
However, without a best-case resolution to the Fukushima problems, from what
we know today, I think this will be at least a medium-term setback for the nuclear
industry.
Even
if the Fukushima problems are resolved reasonably quickly and without further
serious incident, I think old debates will be reopened, not least regarding
reactor design and location. Additionally, costs will need to be reassessed
and they may increase, especially for insurance. Meanwhile, the tabloid media
will have a field day with safety issues. Even though few if any other countries
were planning to build nuclear reactors in major earthquake zones.
I still
think nuclear energy has an attractive future, for all the reasons discussed
previously. However, as investors, we may have to be patient.