Email of the day (1)
Comment of the Day

March 14 2011

Commentary by David Fuller

Email of the day (1)

On uranium shares (one of several received):
"David, I was curious to get your thoughts on the impact of Japan's nuclear plant problems to uranium stocks. Do you think this significantly changes the markets perspective on nuclear energy as reminders of Chernobyl begin to appear in the news? I suspect the demand from China will continue the long term bull-run and this is merely a short term correction. I would be interested to hear your thoughts."

David Fuller's view My thanks to subscribers for several emails on this subject.

I trust that my comments above have partially answered your queries. If this setback in shares such as Cameco and Denison Mines, plus the investment trust Geiger Counter, all of which are in my long-term investment portfolio, had occurred for any reason other than a nuclear accident on the scale of what we see with Fukushima, I would probably be adding to my positions without hesitation. However, if those reactors are not cooled without further incident, it could set back the nuclear industry for several years.

Meanwhile, the chart action has gone some way towards discounting a worst-case scenario, in my view. Consequently the sell-off looks climactic, as I also mentioned above. However, without a best-case resolution to the Fukushima problems, from what we know today, I think this will be at least a medium-term setback for the nuclear industry.

Even if the Fukushima problems are resolved reasonably quickly and without further serious incident, I think old debates will be reopened, not least regarding reactor design and location. Additionally, costs will need to be reassessed and they may increase, especially for insurance. Meanwhile, the tabloid media will have a field day with safety issues. Even though few if any other countries were planning to build nuclear reactors in major earthquake zones.

I still think nuclear energy has an attractive future, for all the reasons discussed previously. However, as investors, we may have to be patient.


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