Email of the day (1)
Comment of the Day

March 24 2011

Commentary by David Fuller

Email of the day (1)

On mean reversion and hedging:
"i understand from your various audios that you expect the us market to fall towards the 200 day ma. are you hedging your long term investment portfolio for this risk? or more generally do you have suggestions about hedging for the long term investment portfolios.

"as always thanks for the wonderful service.

David Fuller's view Thanks for the feedback.

For the record, whenever I open or close a position, I provide the details under the heading: 'My personal portfolio'.

I am not hedged at this time because reversion towards the medium-term trend mean approximately depicted by the 200-day moving average usually includes plenty of ranging if the cyclical bull trend is still intact.

However, the higher Wall Street goes in the short term, the more tempted I may be to open a hedge short. I would not short on weakness as the S&P is less overextended relative to its MA than it was six weeks ago. Meanwhile, it is not a priority for me as my equity investments are in Asian and resources markets which have already experienced mean reversion. Lastly, in cyclical bull markets I would be cautious about shorting unless the crowd is euphoric.

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