"Hi David, love your work - keep it up. I am long gold, short yen, short s&p 500, long lots of US equities.

"Peru - election happening this weekend.

"Although I am an Aussie I have family in Peru. The big "concern" is the uncertainty behind the unlikely candidates (my family is worried). The virtual "communist" left wing have a chance of winning. In which case watch out. They have alerted us to the need to accommodate them should this happen.

"ps. I can't get a seat to your gig in Sydney so have to waitlist."

David Fuller's view Thanks and well done for seizing your opportunities in the markets, although that temporary hedge short in the S&P needs a downward dynamic.

I think all major elections are interesting, because 'governance is everything', as we often say at Fullermoney, not least for emerging (progressing) economies. Reading about the five Peruvian candidates in this article from BBC News Latin America, my initial impression is that democracy is thriving in Peru.


As an armchair commentator in London, I will never have the insights of your relatives living in Peru. However, Ollanta Humala does not sound like a Chavez-style dictator, at least in this campaign. However he has clearly moderated his stance since the 2006 election, when he called for nullifying the Free Trade Agreement between Peru and the USA, and apparently expressed admiration for Hugo Chavez in Venezuela and Evo Morales in Bolivia, according to this article from the World Socialist Web Site.


I would hope and assume that Ollanta Humala has become wiser since then and is sincere in wishing to emulate Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's success in Brazil. Lula was also feared by the business community and many middleclass voters when first elected, as your family will certainly recall.

Assuming Ollanta retains his current lead of between 27 and 28 percent, according to Reuters in this article, he will be one of two candidates in the run-off election to follow on June 5th. In 2006, Ollanta led after the first election but was defeated in the run-off.


Whoever wins the election, it is easier to govern when the economy is forecast to grow by at least 7 percent in 2011. Peru's next president will still benefit from the commodity supercycle. Only a reckless zealot would squander that legacy. Hopefully, Peru will stay on the path of orthodox economic policies, in which case your relatives will presumably feel less concerned.

This email reminds me that I am concerned about the next UK General Election, although this is hopefully at least three years away. Piggybacking on your relatives' request, if, heaven forefend, Ed Miliband becomes the next UK prime minister, can the Fullers squat at your home in Sydney?