Email of the day (1)
Comment of the Day

April 18 2011

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Email of the day (1)

on silver:
"Could you ask Eoin to add Sprott Physical Silver to the chart library (PSLV) and if Bloomberg charts the premium to NAV that would be useful too and for Sprott Physical Gold (PHYS)?

"The premium to spot on PSLV is currently 17% (it has been over 20!) which says something about the alleged shortage of physical and/or the risk of owning the ETF SLV don't you think?! Short PSLV/long spot sounds like a sensible "risk free" trade but experience tells me that rich premia can get a lot richer before reversion to mean kicks in!"

Eoin Treacy's view Thank you for this interesting email and PSLV has been added to the Chart Library. Unfortunately, Bloomberg does not offer the discount/premium to NAV for either of these funds as downloadable data so we cannot add it to the Chart Library. I agree that a 17% premium relative to NAV is rather extreme for an ETF which purports to track the price of the physical commodity.

Silver hit important peaks in April 2004, May 2006 and May 2008. All three coincided with extreme overextensions relative to the 200-day MA. I created this indicator to illustrate the relationship between the silver price and its 200-day exponential moving average. Between 2004 and 2008 overextensions of between 35 and 40% reliably signalled the imminent approach of a medium-term peak.

The indicator hit a similar peak in December and prices paused for approximately 2 months. Silver broke upwards once more in February and at present silver has not been this overextended relative to its 200-day MA in at least 10 years. This situation is unsustainable beyond the short term. The first clear downward dynamic is likely to signal a peak of medium-term significance and the beginning of a reversion towards the mean.

Back to top