"With the recent retreat of precious metals prices and the likely slow period to come, are there any indicators that you might look to as a harbinger of the next sector leader when these metals resume their upward trend. I realize I am looking some months into the future but any insight you might have would be very helpful."

David Fuller's view This is an interesting question.

It also assumes that my two hypothesises on this subject are correct: 1) The precious metals bull market is not over; 2) Silver, following its recent blow-out, is unlikely to be the upside leader during the next advance.

These are my current views but they are obviously not facts. The important point is that the markets will eventually show us what they are going to do - up or down. Meanwhile, my guess, based on today's relative strength, is that platinum or gold will lead the next advance although the initial moves could be more or less simultaneous, as we last saw in September 2009, and that would be a good signal in terms of medium-term potential. Once a new uptrend phase for precious metals is clearly underway, one of the more thinly traded candidates usually takes over the relative performance leadership, as they are targeted for a momentum move.

Note: if precious metals, including palladium, are not showing renewed strength in September, that would be a clear deviation from their uptrend consistence over the last decade which has been particularly pronounced during odd-numbered years.