Email of the day (1)
Comment of the Day

March 05 2010

Commentary by David Fuller

Email of the day (1)

On finding the right vehicle
"From one who has benefited much from the contributions.

"As an adviser, I find that identifying a sector or region is one thing, but finding the right vehicle, tool or investment manager is another. Many more people are now aware of the potential of Vietnam but certainly finding a way to put that into position is another.

"It is therefore with much excitement that I found that Dr Mark Mobius aka the Father of Emerging Markets Funds had gone ahead to start a Frontiers Market fund right when things were all gloom and doom, 2008 Quarter 4. It is rare to find a legend handle "a tiny space". The frontiers fund size is tiny compared to the EM universe that his fund house manages. Mark Mobius has been in the EM space since 1982, and his performance in the frontiers market fund vis a vis the index might be something that might have not caught many investors eyes yet.

"It is not just about Vietnam today (which is their top holding), but many others like Nigeria, Qatar, Egypt, Ukraine, Lebanon, Sri Lanka etc

"Having listened to him, I can understand better now from his wisdom of the many booms and busts that newly emerging markets will go through. It is illiquid, under-researched, under-invested, and not understood by many. For myself and my clients, we are happy to leave money with him to do the work and share in his insights, experience and rewards.

"Another interesting point to note is that the correlation of "frontiers markets" to developed markets and even EM markets is not strong. Year to date, even with uncertainties and money flowing out of EM markets, the underinvested Frontiers Markets fund has held up well. For anyone with a top holding in Vietnam, 2009 Q4 must have been a horrid time with Vietnam stock index free falling, but not so for this frontiers fund which fell 0.75% for that quarter!"

David Fuller's view Thank you for pointing this out. Eoin has put the fund in the Chart Library, where a search under 'Frontier' will produce five entries, two of which are funds. While Templeton and Mobius are worthy names, with this fund they are fishing in disparate waters, which on ancient maps were accompanied by the caveat: 'Here be dragons.' I don't think they were talking about China or Vietnam. Personally, I would prefer a regional or sector theme, rather than something quite so eclectic.

In my observation, fringe funds such as the MENA group (Middle East and North Africa) tend to be late-in-the-cycle movers and they are liquidity driven. As such they can perform very well but it is important to get out when they lose momentum following a very good run.

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