"Hello David, I would be interested to learn how you integrate your technical analysis with your market analysis: for example, palladium recently reverted to its 200 day MA, indicating a possible buy point into what I understand is a long term Fullermoney theme, but yet, against that, now is traditionally seen as a seasonally unfavourable time for precious metals while the end of QE next month could also be seen to be unfavourable for commodities such as palladium that have experienced a run-up throughout QE1 & 2."

David Fuller's view You have given an excellent summary of what I certainly think are relevant points. There is no formulaic resolution, in my opinion, and my own action might well depend on why palladium was being considered.

For instance, if I needed to buy palladium (p&f, historic monthly, weekly & daily) for a jewellery or tech manufacturing business, I would much rather do so following a setback to the MA, rather than pay up during a price surge.

If considering palladium for a personal trade or investment, I would be assessing other factors as well.

For instance, if I wanted to build-up an unleveraged position in physical palladium as a long-term investment, this would be an opportunity to commence or recommence buying.

However, if considering a leveraged trade in futures, I would be more cautious because of seasonal factors mentioned in the email, the rollover characteristics of the current chart action for palladium, plus recent evidence that the entire precious metals sector had commenced a corrective phase.

There is also the overall impression and gut test, in terms of whether one wants to be doing more or less trading in today's environment.

I would monitor growth forecasts for China's automobile industry because it is probably the single biggest consumer of palladium for industrial purposes. As this is a comparatively young industry, there will be less recycling of palladium from older automobile catalytic converters in China. I assume that Russia, as the main supplier of palladium, will endeavour to get the highest possible price for its metal while still honouring any long-term contracts.

Lastly, when palladium next shows relative strength in a generally firm precious metals sector, I would certainly want to be long. Currently, it needs to demonstrate that it can hold and build on support near $700.