Email of the day (1)
"I continue to view market behavior vs. economic news and Fed and ECB actions, as being totally disconnected. The way markets are taking off at 50 and 200 day support lines gives me the feeling that there is a great deal of program trading going on. I continue to support the secular commodity and emerging market themes in the long run, but, with deference to your far greater experience, I do not believe that the current environment and the risks that so many seem to be ignoring is like anything we have seen since the 1930s (unless we can include Japan). I believe that these issues (Eurozone debt problems, U.S. stagnation, the refusal of both to deal with reality) must be cleared before we can get a sustained global bull market. I hope I am proven wrong, but I believe only the taxpayers can put an end to this madness by accepting a few additional percentage points of taxation. (We've been there before) Yet, it is unbelievable how nobody in leadership dares to go there. To the Tea Party and other expense cutters, I say "Remember 1937".
"One other thing is that, until these issues are dealt with realistically, I believe gold is the "currency" to be invested in.
"Occasionally, a far better writer nails it on the button for me. Such is today's comments by Martin Wolfe."
David Fuller's view Thanks for an interesting email and your market sentiments will probably resonate with quite a few people.
There is indeed a great deal of programme trading or at least alerting going on. I believe this is responsible for the higher degree of correlation than we used seeing among assets which are not always related.
The European and USA debt problems are extremely serious and there is no quick or easy resolution. The situation is also aggravated by commodity price inflation. Fortunately for investors, as Fullermoney has often pointed out, both Europe and particularly the USA are home countries for a number of highly successful and innovative multinational companies, with exemplary balance sheets, and which are leveraged to the Asian-led growth economies.
The problems you speak of, plus commodity price inflation, have in recent months largely sidetracked the cyclical bull markets in both equities and commodities which occurred following their 4Q 2008 and 1Q 2009 lows. There are also some zombie stock markets which have done almost nothing since then, except stagger sideways, such is the extent of their economic and / or political difficulties.
However, comparisons with the 1930s certainly do not apply to the world's growth economies. Many of us have done well from our investments in these and will do so again, I maintain. Meanwhile, this ranging, corrective and consolidation phase continues.
With real interest rates low, gold remains the currency in form.