Email of the day (1)
"Firstly, thanks for the cracking recent audios which are balm, stimulating and essential listening in these volatile markets. Just two points: (1) I know you get asked about Japanese equities frequently and Fullermoney remain unconvinced by the medium term upside potential this market. However, the TOPIX Small Index seems to be holding up well in the past week (my Japanese small cap investment trusts certainly are). Do you think this augurs well for when the cyclical bull cycle in equities returns?
"(2) I recommend to the most cautious among the collective the latest quarterly letter from Robin Angus at Personal Assets Trust www.patplc.co.uk. These letters are nearly always entertaining and I like the way this simple portfolio holds gold bullion and will not buy stocks for the sake of being seen to do something. I think these qualities seem to chime with sage views of Fullermoney."
Eoin Treacy's view Thank
you for the feedback and this informative email and questions sure to be of
interest to subscribers. Japan's stock market, in local currency terms, has
underperformed just about every other developed market for a number of years.
In the eyes of some, this makes it appealing from a contrarian perspective.
On a Price/Book valuation Japanese equities
and particularly small caps are not expensive. The market has become oversold
recently in line with global stock markets and has equal potential to post a
short covering rally.
However,
Japan is not a Fullermoney themed market. The banking
sector remains under considerable pressure. The economy has not yet recovered
from the tsunami and earthquakes earlier this year. The political system is
sclerotic. In addition the Yen has been a headwind for the country's world class
export sector. The Japanese market is unlikely to be among the first markets
to complete a base formation.
We have
long opined that a weaker Yen was a necessary precondition for the stock market
to move to a position of outperformance. The Yen
Trade Weighted Index extended its medium-term uptrend over the last couple
of weeks and would need to sustain a move below 138 to indicate a failed upside
break and return of supply dominance.
The Personal
Assets Trust has performed well and held up admirably over the last few
weeks. Its portfolio contains a number of shares favoured by Fullermoney. It
is unclear what the trust's fees are from the prospectus. I too enjoyed the
plain speaking manner of the quarterly review.